天然橡膠市場一周行情（2015.1.5-1.9）

時間：2015-01-23 作者： 來源： 點擊次數：5945

<table style="width:100%;" border="1" cellspacing="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="8"> <p style="text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:14px;">天然橡膠市場一周行情（2015.1.5-1.9）</span></strong> </p> <p style="text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">--國家天然橡膠產業技術體系海口綜合試驗站(中國天然橡膠協會）&nbsp;中國農墾經濟發展中心經濟貿易處</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">類別</span></strong><br /> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.5</span> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.6</span> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.7</span> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.8</span> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.9</span> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">漲跌幅</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="3" width="14%"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">產區FOB</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">價格</span></strong><br /> </td> <td width="20%"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">泰國煙片RSS3（美元）</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1720.7</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1727.5</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1720.4</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1699.7</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">—&nbsp;—</span> </td> <td width="11%"> -1.22% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 印標20#（美元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 1735.0 </td> <td> 1730.0 </td> <td> 1720.0 </td> <td> 1695.0 </td> <td> —&nbsp;— </td> <td> -2.31% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 馬標20#（美元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 1523.0 </td> <td> 1510.0 </td> <td> 1481.0 </td> <td> 1445.0 </td> <td> 1453.0 </td> <td> -&nbsp;4.60% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="2"> <strong>國內現貨報價</strong><br /> </td> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 上海、山東全乳膠（元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 12500 </td> <td> 12600 </td> <td> 12600 </td> <td> 12500 </td> <td> 12500 </td> <td> 0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 人民幣復合膠報價（元，含稅）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 10800 </td> <td> 10800 </td> <td> 10500 </td> <td> 10400 </td> <td> 10400 </td> <td> -3.70% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="10"> <strong>市場信息</strong><br /> </td> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 滬膠成交量分析（手）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 459516 </td> <td> 658940 </td> <td> 647204 </td> <td> 592762 </td> <td> 695478 </td> <td> 51.35% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 滬膠持倉量分析（手）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 183484 </td> <td> 188338 </td> <td> 184478 </td> <td> 185218 </td> <td> 181638 </td> <td> -1.01% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 主力合約收盤價（元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 13410 </td> <td> 13550 </td> <td> 13325 </td> <td> 13175 </td> <td> 13350 </td> <td> -0.455 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 滬膠遠近合約價差（元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> -440 </td> <td> -710 </td> <td> -955 </td> <td> -955 </td> <td> -675 </td> <td> -235 </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 新加坡RSS3結算價（美元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 1709 </td> <td> 1690 </td> <td> 1650 </td> <td> 1645 </td> <td> 1660 </td> <td> -2.87% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 新加坡TSR20結算價（美元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 1513 </td> <td> 1495 </td> <td> 1445 </td> <td> 1440 </td> <td> 1456 </td> <td> -3.77% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> TOCOM主力月收盤價（日元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 214.4 </td> <td> 210.8 </td> <td> 209.5 </td> <td> 206.5 </td> <td> 208.2 </td> <td> -2.89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> NYMEX原油（美元）<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 50.04 </td> <td> 47.93 </td> <td> 48.65 </td> <td> 48.79 </td> <td> 48.36 </td> <td> -3.36% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 美元兌人民幣中間價<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 6.2166 </td> <td> 6.2126 </td> <td> 6.2138 </td> <td> 6.2143 </td> <td> 6.2085 </td> <td> -0.13% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> 美元兌日元匯率<span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> 120.3 </td> <td> 118.5 </td> <td> 119.3 </td> <td> 119.96 </td> <td> 118.56 </td> <td> -1.45% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>庫存放方面</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <span style="line-height:1.5;"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 上海期貨交易所本周五庫存由上周的<span>154086</span><span>噸減至</span><span>151585</span><span>噸，減少</span><span>2501</span><span>，或</span><span>1.62%</span><span>。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 截至<span>12</span><span>月</span><span>30</span><span>日，青島保稅區橡膠總庫存較本月中旬小幅下滑</span><span>1%</span><span>，至</span><span>13.1</span><span>萬噸。</span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp; &nbsp; 日本橡膠貿易協會最新公布的數據顯示，截至<span>12</span><span>月</span><span>31</span><span>日，日本港口橡膠庫存再增加</span><span>2.5%</span><span>至</span><span>13,306</span><span>噸。</span> </p> </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>供應方面</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 國際橡膠研究組織（<span>IRSG</span><span>）在</span><span>2014</span><span>年</span><span>12</span><span>月發布的全球橡膠工業前景（</span><span>WRIO</span><span>）報告中預計，</span><span>2015</span><span>年全球橡膠需求量將增長</span><span>1.8%</span><span>，</span><span>2016</span><span>年增幅將達到</span><span>4.1%</span><span>，這意味著</span><span>2015</span><span>年橡膠需求量將達到</span><span>2910</span><span>萬噸，</span><span>2016</span><span>年為</span><span>3030</span><span>萬噸。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>需求方面</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 中國海關總署最新公布的數據顯示，中國<span>2014</span><span>年</span><span>11</span><span>月天然橡膠進口量為</span><span>21.89</span><span>萬噸，同比降</span><span>18.7%</span><span>。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>汽車方面</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 根據中國汽車工業協會發布的數據，<span>2014</span><span>年</span><span>11</span><span>月，我國卡車產銷</span><span>26.85</span><span>萬輛和</span><span>25.94</span><span>萬輛，環比分別增長</span><span>14%</span><span>和</span><span>12.72%</span><span>，上漲幅度較</span><span>10</span><span>月明顯增加，同比則分別下降</span><span>9.81%</span><span>和</span><span>12.59%</span><span>。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>宏觀方面</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 從經濟數據來看，國內公布的<span>12</span><span>月</span><span>PMI</span><span>、</span><span>CPI</span><span>、</span><span>PPI</span><span>等數據來看，</span><span>12</span><span>月份國內經濟數據并不看好，整體反映了國內經濟的下行。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 國儲局<span>12</span><span>月進行了兩輪收儲，其中</span><span>12</span><span>月</span><span>9</span><span>日完成了</span><span>8.75</span><span>萬噸的量，</span><span>12</span><span>月</span><span>22</span><span>日國儲局再次競拍，完成</span><span>4.1</span><span>萬噸的量。</span><span>2014</span><span>年收儲大幕落下，一共競拍</span><span>12.85</span><span>萬噸，其中海膠</span><span>5.3</span><span>萬噸，中化</span><span>4.75</span><span>萬噸，云墾</span><span>2.8</span><span>萬噸。交儲在</span><span>2015</span><span>年</span><span>6</span><span>月</span><span>30</span><span>日前完成。</span><span style="line-height:1.5;font-size:12px;"></span> </p> <p> <span id="__kindeditor_bookmark_start_3__"></span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong>總體分析</strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 總體看，全球供應充足。本周泰國<span>3</span><span>號煙片、印尼</span><span>20</span><span>號標膠、馬來西亞的</span><span>20</span><span>號標膠</span><span>FOB</span><span>價格小幅下跌；滬膠主力、新加坡</span><span>RSS3</span><span>小幅下跌，</span><span>TOCOM</span><span>主力合約、新加坡</span><span>&nbsp;TSR20</span><span>小幅下跌；滬膠的成交量大幅增加，持倉量小幅減少；上海、山東現貨價格小幅減少。上海期貨交易所天然橡膠庫存小幅減少，青島保稅區庫存持續減少。美元指數上漲、美原油指數下跌、道瓊斯指數下跌。受多種因素影響，近期天膠震蕩下跌。</span> </p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <span id="__kindeditor_bookmark_end_4__"></span>

責任編輯：經濟貿易處